Analysis of development factors
First, favorable factors
(A) The policy is good
On September 28, 2016, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Textile Industry Development Plan (2016-2020)". The Plan proposes to focus on improving the quality and efficiency of development, promoting the structural reform on the supply side, and focusing on the "three-product" strategy of increasing variety, quality and brand building, strengthening industrial innovation capability and optimizing industrial structure , Promote intelligent manufacturing and green manufacturing, create new momentum for development, create new competitive advantages, promote industries to move toward the high-end and initially build a textile power. The "Plan" put forward specific tasks in six aspects: enhancing industrial innovation capability, vigorously implementing the "Three-product" strategy, promoting intelligent textile manufacturing, accelerating the process of green development, promoting regional coordinated development, and enhancing the comprehensive strength of enterprises. As a special plan to guide the development of the textile industry in the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, "planning" will promote the transformation and upgrading of the textile industry and create new advantages in competition.
(B) "Internet + Textile" new model
According to the estimation of the Ministry of Commerce, the total amount of e-commerce transactions in textile and clothing in 2016 was 4.45 trillion yuan, up 20.27% over the same period of last year and accounting for 20.23% of the total e-commerce transactions in the country. Among them, the trading volume of B2B e-commerce was 3.45 trillion yuan, up 21.05%. The total retail sales of apparel and textile fabrics totaled 985 billion yuan, up 18.53% over the same period of previous year, accounting for 23.51% of the total retail sales of the national physical goods network.
The textile force consisting of the electricity supplier B2B platforms such as Alibaba, Global Textile Network and Fabric Online has become an important driving force for the transformation and upgrading of the textile and apparel industry. The addition of "Internet + Textile" to the textile industry makes the transaction process more convenient and more Is to break through the original geographical restrictions, all parts of China fabric and garment factory supply and demand together in order to solve the traditional selling cloth and find cloth annoying trouble.
(C) regional industrial restructuring
"Belt and Road", the coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and the Yangtze River, and the implementation of the three major strategic economic zones in the Yangtze River, providing new opportunities for the coordinated development of textile regions. The construction of the core zone of the Silk Road Economic Belt in Xinjiang and the implementation of a series of policies to promote the development of the textile and garment industry in Xinjiang will push the development of Xinjiang's textile industry to a new level. Promoting a new type of urbanization, especially by guiding 100 million people to urbanize in the central and western regions, will enhance the internal dynamics of the textile industry in the central and western regions. The adjustment of the global textile division of labor system and the acceleration of the trading system will promote enterprises to make more effective use of the two markets and two resources and take a proactive approach of "going global" to enhance the internationalization of the textile industry and create a new situation in opening up and development of the textile industry.
(D) continued to promote brand building
During the "12th Five-Year Plan", the brand awareness of the whole industry was further enhanced, and the industry brand cultivation and management system and the brand value evaluation system were initially formed. China International Fashion Week, Chinese Fashion Awards, China International Fashion Week, Fashion Festival and other activities around the continuous held, fiber, fabrics, home textiles trends research and release, "Textile and Apparel Industry Annual Brand Development Report" and so on, to promote the industry Brand Development. At present, there are about 3,500 apparel home textile brands active in the domestic market, and the whole industry owns more than 300 "China Well-known Trademarks". A number of apparel textile brands have set up overseas design agencies and sales networks, and Chinese designers showcased their products on the international stage. Online sales of apparel textile average annual growth of more than 40%, the rapid growth of e-commerce has expanded the brand product market influence.
Second, unfavorable factors
(A) the cost advantage is no longer
In recent years, the cost of China's textile industry has risen obviously, and its cost advantage is no longer. China's textile industry faces four major high costs, above all labor costs. With the demographic dividend of cheap labor in China going away and the textile industry in Southeast Asia rising, the foreign environment has brought severe challenges to the domestic textile enterprises. In the developed countries, "re-industrialization" and developing countries to accelerate the double squeeze of industrial processes, developing countries in Asia, Africa, labor costs have obvious advantages; China's textile industry's international comparative advantage is weakening. Followed by: energy costs, transportation costs and environmental management costs.
(B) exports decline
In 2016, the total trade volume of China's textile and apparel amounted to 290.6 billion U.S. dollars, down 6.1% from the same period of last year. Of this total, exports amounted to US $ 267.25 billion, down 5.9% over the same period of last year; imports reached US $ 23.36 billion, down 8.8% over the same period of last year; cumulative trade surplus was US $ 242.89 billion, down 5.6% over the same period of last year. The main reasons for the decline in exports in 2016 include: sluggish economic recovery in major export markets and weak external demand; uncertainties in the external environment and an increase in uncertainties affecting exports; continued rise in production costs and further weakening of traditional advantages; The market share in major markets gradually narrowed; the prices of export commodities dropped sharply.
(C) low-end product overcapacity
Chinese textiles and apparel have traditionally occupied the international market with low prices. Although the volume of exports is large, the added value of products is obviously lower. At present, the effective supply of high-end products in the textile industry in our country is insufficient, and the low-end products have stage and structural excess capacity. Expected to reform the supply of the textile industry or will continue to eliminate backward production capacity, especially in the context of high labor costs, low value-added products in the future will have even more limited living space.
2017-2021 China's textile industry sales revenue forecast
In 2016, the sales revenue of China's textile industry was 4.08697 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.7% over the same period of last year. We estimate that in 2017, the sales revenue of China's textile industry will reach 4,160.5 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 3.67% over the next five years (2017-2021). By 2021, China's textile industry will have sales revenue of 4,040.4 billion yuan.
2017-2021 China textile industry profit forecast
In 2016, the total profit of China's textile industry was 2,194.1 billion yuan, an increase of 1.2% over the same period of last year. We estimate that the total profit of China's textile industry in 2017 will reach 222.7 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.92% for the next five years (2017-2021) and a total profit of 204.0 billion yuan for the textile industry in 2021.